Trump won, but the MAGA coin lost

Author: CMed, BlockBeats

What can be described as the most exciting story on Web3 for 2024, “Trump becomes the first Bitcoin president”, concluded on the evening of November 5, US time. Bitcoin has currently broken through the wide swing range that lasted six months, surpassing the previous high of almost $73,700, to reach a high of $76,000.

In traditional market perception, the Trump meme coin, which is most closely associated with Trump, would rise with news of his election. It is interesting to note that on November 6, the day after Trump’s election and during the Web3 celebration, the Trump series meme coins did not show outstanding performance; instead, they experienced a “halving” situation when they should have been on the decline lists of the major exchanges if they had not increased.

For example, address 0x2f6…1Be78 invested almost $250,000 to purchase 70,000 TRUMP coins at an average price of $3.55 during sentiment FOMO, when votes for the “King of Understanding” were significantly in favor . Currently, it has an unrealized loss of $88,000 (about 35.5%).

Why this decline?

Based on the performance of the Trump series meme coins since their issuance, taking Trump as an example, the price was already at a relatively low level on the eve of his campaign. Interestingly, when looking at Trump’s public accounts, since May, Trump’s crypto address has accumulated over three million dollars, with the main losses coming from the meme coin named after Trump. The quantity has not decreased, but as the price has decreased, the assets discussed in Trump’s speech have also decreased significantly.

After Trump’s successful campaign, it was certainly expected that “the good news would sink in fully.” However, taking the token named after Trump as an example, it did not show a significant increase before experiencing a “halving”, which is clearly illogical.

Do memes from political shows have no future?

Looking at some recently emerged political memes, such as Pnut and DOGE, they have not seen a significant decline like Trump and MAGA; instead, they saw an increase.

Pnut and memes like Trump and MAGA aren’t quite the same. Trump and MAGA seem more like “straight” political narratives. Digging into their stories, we can only reflect support for Trump, while Pnut’s story can be explored in more depth.

Pnut is named after a pet squirrel that mechanical engineer Mark Longo brought home after watching his mother die in a car accident more than seven years ago. On October 30, officials with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation arrested Peanut without a search warrant and euthanized him.

The peanut was considered an “illegally kept wild animal,” which the public did not accept. The satirical news site Babylon Bee said: “Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats have started to riot. » Elon Musk has also repeatedly expressed his support for Peanut on social media. This Peanut incident was presented as an unusual attack on the Democratic Party and even as a political weapon in public discourse.

From this point of view, we can see that the political series memes are not over; on the contrary, the discourse of simply supporting Trump is not “exciting” enough.

Interestingly, the PolyMarket “betting prediction platform” and the Trump series memes have, to some extent, become premium. Investing in Trump memes is not as good as betting on Trump to win on PolyMarket because the underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket saw a significant increase in trading volume and the number of events planned in 2024, which may also explain the prolonged low prices of Trump series meme coins.

Meme or DeFi? The crypto fork after the Trump presidency

In the eyes of many market participants, the grand narrative that Trump will become the first “Bitcoin President” in US history will certainly lead to the emergence of many “golden dogs”. That day, Degens was eager to find different “angles” on Twitter.

For example, Atlas, JD Vance’s dog, participated in the vote, and the new president of the Sec, nicknamed the “crypto mother”, Hester, ultimately could not escape the “PVP” logic, quickly falling back to zero after reaching a multi-million dollar market capitalization. Many “diamond-handed degens” faced PVP failures that day.

Moving from DEX to CEX, the market sentiment was completely different. The sentiment within the CEX was very enthusiastic and the “zero value altcoins” criticized by the market for six months showed significant increases. The day Trump took office, “wild chain farming” seemed to be disappearing, and many thought, “With regulations easing, making money on the table no longer requires wild farming in chain “.

DeFi tokens with protocol revenue have largely dispelled fears of being classified as “securities.” Rune Christensen, the founder of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), said on social media: “Trump’s victory will lead to a true and lasting renaissance of DeFi, with the possibility of increasing the number of users tenfold, as DeFi benefits the most from ‘a reduction in regulatory uncertainty in the United States compared to other aspects of the crypto space.

These DeFi tokens saw good gains after Trump’s election, with Uniswap gaining a maximum of 46%, Ethena a maximum of 72%, Jito a maximum of 63%, and Lido DAO a maximum of 56%, with slight pullbacks at the time of writing.

Perhaps in the near future we will see a “return to bullishness,” with liquidity in the CEX becoming abundant again and on-chain hot money becoming less active. Memes may no longer be the time to easily reach a twenty million dollar market cap with just a slight angle; instead, they will require more exciting and deeper narratives to foster consensus growth.