Your support helps us tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story develops. From investigating the finances of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC to producing our latest documentary, “The A Word,” which spotlights American women fighting for their reproductive rights, we know how important it is to analyze the facts from messaging.
At such a critical moment in U.S. history, we need journalists on the ground. Your donation allows us to continue sending journalists to speak on both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the political spectrum. And unlike many other quality media outlets, we choose not to exclude Americans from our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe that quality journalism should be accessible to all, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.
Punters have already bet on what Donald TrumpIt is inauguration what he will look like – including what words he will use and whether he will end a war before he even takes office.
A Casino Reports study analyzed the top 10 events, by dollar amount, that people bet on using prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi and related to Trump’s inauguration. Only bets expected to be resolved around January 20 were included in the study.
Many have bet on what president-elect » he will say during his second inauguration, with $1.4 million invested in bets on certain words and expressions that Trump will use during his speech.
According to the study, 78% of bettors think Trump will utter the phrase “America First” at least once in his inauguration speech. Some – 4% of punters – predict he will mention one of his more recent works: “McDonald’s.” Others bet he would be referring to “Dogecoin,” the Trump-backed cryptocurrency. “first boyfriend” Elon Musk.
Others bet that another member of Trump’s cabinet would step down before his inauguration. Matt Gaetz, the president-elect’s former initial pick for attorney general, resigned After allegations of misconduct, including claims that he paid for sex with an underage girland the imminent publication of the report of the House ethics committee who investigated these allegations.
The former Florida congressman was not the only candidate under scrutiny. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s defense secretary pick who was questioned over alleged sexual assault and reported alcohol problemsshould be grilled by the Senate Tuesday.
Bettors placed $108,638 on the possibility of another candidate withdrawing before Trump’s inauguration, with 8% of bettors “certain” that another withdrawal will occur, according to the study.
Punters also invested $3.4 million to see if the president-elect could broker a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine before midnight on January 20. However, only 1% of punters believe it is possible to reach this milestone.
For comparison, 16% of bettors believed a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia could be reached by November 7, when they began betting on whether Trump could put end the war before returning to the White House.
Others are trying to take advantage of Trump and Musk’s relationship. The tech billionaire has spent a lot of time with the president-elect in recent months, including passing $2,000 per night on a chalet just a few hundred yards from the main house at Mar-a-Lago.
Some bettors – 6% – speculated that a Tesla Bot, “or any other humanoid robot designed by Tesla, Inc. or one of its subsidiaries,” would be present at Trump’s inauguration, with $233,436 wagered on this possibility.
Others focus more on what happens after Trump is sworn in.
Nearly half a million, or $449,736, was wagered on how many executive orders Trump will issue on his first day in office, with 71% of bettors predicting he will issue more than 15 executive orders on his first day. signed 14 decrees the first day; President Joe Biden signed on 17 decrees on its first day in 2021.
Nearly $10 million was wagered on events related to Trump’s second inauguration, Brett Smiley, editorial director of Casino Reports, said in a statement responding to the documents. He believed this amount indicated “that people are willing to walk the talk and actively participate in these events rather than speculate on the sidelines.”