Cryptocurrency prices have risen significantly since Donald Trump won the presidential election in early November, and cryptocurrency prices have generally held up well to the recent rise in Treasury yields. Most investors remain optimistic about the favorable regulatory actions Trump could trigger when he takes office. Few tokens have benefited more than XRP (XRP -1.55%)the third most valuable cryptocurrency in the world, and Dogecoin (DOGE -1.83%)the seventh most valuable cryptocurrency in the world. Since election night, XRP has catapulted over 500% to $3.28, while Dogecoin is up 140% to $0.38 (as of January 16). Is it more likely that XRP will hit $4 or Dogecoin will hit $0.60 in 2025?
Different catalysts to come
Certainly, both XRP and Dogecoin will benefit from a sustained crypto bull market. However, XRP has seemingly caught up as it has not benefited as much from the crypto boom in recent years as Dogecoin.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple, the company behind XRP, and its founders in 2020 for selling XRP as an unregistered security in 2013. The crypto community paid close attention to the case as it allegedly could set a precedent for how the SEC’s regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies. Most crypto proponents would like to avoid the SEC’s numerous securities laws and instead be overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The lawsuit was an overhang for XRP. In 2023, a federal judge ruled in favor of XRP, although the SEC said last year it would appeal parts of the decision. The SEC filed the opening brief of its appeal of the decision by the January 15 deadline. Nonetheless, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will resign once Trump becomes president, so many investors and analysts expect the agency to drop the lawsuit under new leadership.
Many suspect that once the trial is over, there could be spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which would likely increase XRP adoption. Companies have already filed to begin the process of creating such ETFs, and similar spot ETFs have served as major catalysts for Bitcoin And Ethereum in 2024. Ripple has also rolled out a stablecoin called RLUSD which can be used on the XRP ledger and Ethereum blockchain. Ripple’s Senior Vice President of Stablecoins, Jack McDonald, told CNBC that XRP would serve as a bridge asset for RLUSD on the XRP ledger, increasing the need for the token.
The catalysts for Dogecoin are not as clear as those for XRP. Sponsors could file for ETFs, although this seems less likely than for XRP. However, Dogecoin has defied the odds time and again thanks to its rabid community, which seems to intensely buy the token whenever someone like Elon Musk mentions it or if Bitcoin and crypto take off. It has significantly outperformed Bitcoin since 2020.
Which token will break through?
XRP and Dogecoin have the potential to surpass $4 and $0.60, respectively. These tokens tend to outperform Bitcoin during boom times and underperform during market downturns. Many suspect that the crypto rally still has weight in 2025, and it could certainly gain momentum if inflation slows and Treasury yields fall (although recently the opposite has happened).
However, I believe XRP has more obvious potential catalysts that could propel the token beyond $4, especially if the SEC drops its lawsuit and approves XRP spot ETFs. The XRP ledger is used by financial institutions to better make cross-border payments, and it could become more popular as RLUSD is also adopted. XRP and Dogecoin will likely continue to be volatile, so I would recommend a smaller, more speculative position in XRP. I have no interest in Dogecoin at the moment.
Bram Berkowitz has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP. The Motley Fool holds positions and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.